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Forbes brought together four of the most influential Bulgarian handelsbanken economists to make professional dissection of the recent banking panic, to examine the situation from all sides and to draw lessons. The interview was published in issue 41 of Forbes.
What happened? Krasen Stanchev: Typical reputational problem. Reputation is a pledge that the customer download when unhappy. First it happened handelsbanken with KTB, and then the other bank, and because it implies as political. While other banks that can be posed by customers as a political, not suffered. Reputational process has several floors. The first is the current ruling majority, which is quite random and strong support handelsbanken for the CCB, the second is the disintegration of the political foundation of confidence in this bank and the third, in non-participation of the government about two weeks, some panic in the central handelsbanken bank, which dyes confidence in the whole system, so its actions handelsbanken were not always very rational. Emil Hursev: This is a classic panic that had its bases in what is happening in the country. Against KTB and supervisory institution were taken official actions that strongly shaken confidence in the ability of the supervisory authority to regulate the banking system. He was directly attacked by the prosecution in particular handelsbanken apparent reason - Deputy Governor of BNB e accused criminal because not taken measures against KTB. What one would infer: a) in CCB becomes something criminal, and b) the supervisor can not master this crime, on the contrary, he himself commits an offense unpunished handelsbanken criminal KTB. And with all the political background of speaking in the context who is who in Bulgarian politics and business, I mean game of "Titans", which was the topic of the day, create a comfortable atmosphere to start. After the first bank fell, spun an avalanche of hypotheses who is next. These things are described in the literature. There is always a trigger, such as "Lehman Brothers" in the United States, handelsbanken which triggers the chain reaction. Says Sir Mervyn King, the former governor of the Bank of England: "It is not rational to incite a bank panic, but once triggered bank runs is rational to participate in it, lest they overtake the others." As far better governed by our societies after the fall of the Bank are asked who is next. After "Lehman" was a central question in the American press at least 3-4 days. And this is a country with very serious story in the regulations, without reputational problems. But once let the spirit of the bottle, he created his path. Lachezar Bogdanov: handelsbanken We have a banking system that is supposed to be regulated by the Bank. At the moment the prosecution directly say that those who must ensure the stability of the banks, are criminals, not monitor banks, on the contrary, even disguise is normal to have such a reaction, and hence likely handelsbanken targeted attack handelsbanken from large depositors handelsbanken who are members perhaps in a war between "heroes" and quite unmeasured speaking politicians. Georgi Angelov: Everything handelsbanken observed in the banking system is a result of the war between Tsvetan Vassilev and Delyan handelsbanken Peevski. It was a small part of the war between handelsbanken the two. And the question was to control the panic because the moment in which an institution falls, panic began to grow. If there is a second, then uncontrollable. At some point you have to put a line and say - here, protect front. And you must be prepared with resources to protect. Required political consensus that nobody believed that it would be achieved. There were many groups of people who literally wanted to break down one or another bank, because they have a dispute with it or because they do not give credit or gave them, and they do not want to return. Any local gangsters decided that since no government can push any bank, no one can resist - why we can not send SMS-es. It was important to have a unified response, it is clear that one stands on the barricade and have the money - even if you do not have to use this money, you should have to say - here, come test me. These are the two things that stopped development, and just hours after the declaration of the President and the authorization by the European Commission to use all resources subsided. At the moment you see the money and the desire to use the panic ends. Hp .: Judging by the data of BNB for the money in circulation, we have no indication nor escape from lev, nor escape from banks to cash macro. No general phenomenon of mistrust and escape handelsbanken as in the 90s when we had a general distrust in the currency, banking, contracts state. E.H